Nudge Teams in the Bowl Season

I'm not sure if I can accurately describe how much I love the college football bowl season. While there is ever-growing consternation about 6-6 teams getting pArTiCiPaTioN TrOpHieS and the (quite fair) complaint that more bowl games is nothing more than ESPN squeezing more and more dollars out of unpaid athletes, what I love about college bowl season is the unique matchups that we get to see. If I had to pick one reason why I prefer collegiate football to NFL, it's because there are so many different ways to breed success within the same parameters of the game. In the NFL, there are 32 of the same (more or less) approaches to the game and what separates the good from the great teams is exploiting weaknesses and being able to adapt on the fly. Sure there are some teams that are more offensive-minded compared to a defense-first approach, but there's much less polarity in terms of on-field identity.

In college, however, you have so many beautiful variations of how to succeed, and we get to see those big variations go head-to-head more often than not. The vast volume of programs alone (130 FBS programs and counting as conference realignment puts our brains into pretzels) forces coaches to be creative, using what little funds they have in their budget to recruit well and maintain a place in the arms-race of locker rooms and facilities that rival 5-star all-inclusive resorts. While it's laughable that Alabama and Rice are technically competing for the same trophy, they obviously cannot operate in the same way in order to achieve that goal. And as the saying goes, scarcity breeds innovation. The less affluent programs create some truly beautiful football, but because they don't play in front of 100,000 fans and aren't pumping out NFL players annually, we don't always get to see that on Saturdays.

Until bowl season. Bowls are strategically planned across a 3-week slate so that there is hardly any overlap in kickoff times. The cynic in me says that's only because dollar-hungry TV executives are trying boost their bottom line even more, and yeah, that's definitely part of the reason, but it also gives these smaller schools a national stage that they don't often get. Not every casual fan is going to watch Old Dominion vs Tulsa on a Monday afternoon at 2:30 PM, but for a college football sicko such as myself, you can bet your life that I'll have that game on my second monitor while I'm tweaking my year-end and Q4 spreadsheets. They are the only bowl game that day, and while I think it would make a little more sense to have a 5 PM kick off that leads straight into Monday night, they are still have the spotlights all to themselves. That makes me happy.

Let's put that soapbox away now before I get too deep in my head about redefining the democratization of college football and how a relegation and promotion system would be better for the sport in the long-term than outdated conferences based on geography and tied to certain TV network contr -

*puts finger to ear* I'm getting word that I am indeed getting in it too deep. Apologies, readers.

Onto the bowl season! Or at least, the Nudge School Bowl Season. We have 14 of our licensee schools in a bowl game this year, and only 6 of the remaining FBS schools did not win enough games to get bowl eligible (although I firmly believe that every school should have some sort of postseason game against an opponent they'd normally never play - Texas State versus Bowling Green? Sign me up), so the percentage of success is quite good, just like it was for March Madness.

Boca Raton Bowl: Appalachian State vs Western Kentucky, 12/18, 11 AM

Line: App State -2.5, O/U 68
App State's best win: 30-27 over #14 Coastal Carolina
App State's worst loss: 41-13 to Louisiana
I didn't watch any WKU this year, but I do know that they can score in bunches. Their lowest point total of 2021 was 31 against Michigan State (most of those points in garbage time), which was their 3rd loss in a row, and after losing the following week to UTSA, they ripped off 7 consecutive wins, scoring an average of 45.2 PPG and losing by one score in the C-USA championship game to UTSA again. They have the nation's leading passer and receiver (QB Bailey Zappe can set the single season passing record with 289 yards) going up against App State's stout defense (22nd nationally in defensive efficiency according to FEI), so this game is a perfect example of differing styles going against each other.
They say defense wins championships, and while App State lost twice to conference champ Louisiana, I think they have what it takes to slow down WKU enough to be able to win. App State ranks 13th in defensive points per play and has just a good enough offense (WKU's defense is also ranked 92nd in efficiency) to win. Give me App State to win, cover, and hit over in total points.
Movie comparison: any Daniel Craig Bond movie. You know exactly what to expect from both the hero and the villain, but still love the spectacle either way, despite some kitschy parts here and there.

NUDGE BOWL! LendingTree Bowl, Liberty vs Eastern Michigan, 12/18, 5:45 PM

Line: Liberty -8.5, O/U 59
Liberty's best win: 36-12 over UAB
Liberty's worst loss: 31-28 to Louisiana-Monroe
EMU's best win: 13-12 over Miami (Ohio)
EMU's worst loss: 34-26 to Ohio
Malik Willis is an electric QB for Liberty but he's been more mistake prone this year than last. He's still accounted for 35 touchdowns and Eastern's defense is in the bottom 15% of almost every advanced metric, so they'll have to outscore Liberty more than stop Liberty if they want to win. They are a top-30 team in OFD (offensive first downs), so they don't leave the field easily when they do have the ball, and that bodes well for them, but I just don't think they'll have an answer for Willis.
I'll take Liberty to cover but the under on total points. Eastern is scrappy and slows the game down, so there simply won't be enough possessions in the game for the score to get up there.
Movie comparison: My Cousin Vinny. Lovable curmudgeon protagonist who is a fish out of water (EMU), a great performance where you didn't expect it from the supporting cast, and a goofy storyline that delivers you to a thrilling ending.

NUDGE BOWL! Myrtle Beach Bowl, Old Dominion vs Tulsa, 12/20, 2:30 PM

Line: Tulsa -9.5, O/U 52
ODU's best win: 24-17 over MTSU
ODU's worst loss: 28-21 to UTEP
Tulsa's best win: 34-31 over SMU
Tulsa's worst loss: 20-17 to Navy
ODU snuck in to bowl eligibility about as narrowly as possible, but for the first time since 2016 (and only the 2nd time since they've been an FBS team), ODU is bowling! After going 1-11 in 2019 and not playing in 2020, first-year head coach Ricky Rahne took an improbable Monarchs squad from 1-6 (that 1 win over FCS Hampton) to 6-6 with 5 straight wins to end the season.
Tulsa was down by only 7 in the 4th quarter against Ohio State, but like the rest of their season, they couldn't quite put it together to be great. They played Cincinnati tough after losing to Navy. They got blown out by Houston but beat a tough Memphis team. They're hard to peg, but they have a consistent rushing attack that will translate well into postseason play.
Old Dominion also has one of the worst offenses in the country, so this could turn into something of a rock fight. I'll take ODU to cover (9.5 is a big spread for Tulsa, who ended 8 games at 8-point spreads or fewer) and the under.
Movie comparison: Beverly Hills Cop. Relentlessly goofy but with a good heart and unexpected depth from what was (at the time) a relatively unknown star.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, Kent State vs Wyoming, 12/21, 3:30 PM

Line: Wyoming -3, O/U 58.5
Kent State's best win: 52-47 over NIU (regular season)
Worst loss: @WMU 64-31 (they don't really have a bad loss, but they do tend to get blown out when they do lose)
The MAC East champs are headed way out west to face an extremely inconsistent Wyoming team. The Cowboys won 4 straight to start the season (including a win over MAC champ NIU), lost 4 straight, and then traded wins and losses for the last four weeks of the season. Big wins over Utah State and NIU show that they can score points but then bad losses to Hawaii and New Mexico show that the offense can also disappear.
Kent State on the other hand, scores consistently (36 PPG in conference play) and is more explosive so this game will come down to whichever defense can prevent the biggest plays. This one should be fun on the blue turf; give me Kent State comfortably and the over.
Movie Comparison: Hot Rod. Potential to get extremely weird and you have to really buy in to the chaos to enjoy it, blue turf and everything.

Armed Forces Bowl, Army vs. Missouri, 12/22, 8 PM

Line: Army -3.5, O/U 59.5 (before they lost to Navy)
Army's best win: Liberty, 31-16
Army's worst loss: Navy, 17-13
Army is the easiest and hardest team to prepare for - they've run the same offense since football was invented (although they are throwing the ball more frequently this year), but it's an offense that grinds your teeth to dust and forces you to reconcile with whatever higher power you choose to worship because they come at you with the force of...well, an army. Lucky for them, Missouri's defense is quite bad, ranking #110 in defensive efficiency (5th worst among P5 teams).
Army has also proven that they can put up some points in quicker fashion, winning 38-35 against WKU and putting up 56 on Wake Forest in a losing effort, rather than winning low scoring bare knuckle fights in years past. I doubt this game will turn into a touchdown frenzy because Missouri's offense starts and stops with Tyler Badie and that's pretty much it. Army will make it their mission to stop him and then Missouri will likely be out of options.
As all service academy football teams are, they don't beat themselves, they scout better than almost anyone, and will exploit any weakness they can find. Missouri has a lot of weaknesses. I think I want to take Army and the over because I don't think Missouri will have an answer for the triple option for 4 quarters. I can see it being a close one at halftime and Army pulling away with some big runs late.
Movie Comparison: Frozen II. Not necessarily high on your list to watch, but a weird combination of morbid curiosity and a comfortability of knowing exactly what to expect get you to tune in.

Frisco Football Classic, North Texas vs Miami of Ohio, 12/23, 3:30 PM

Line: Miami -3.5, O/U 52
UNT's best win: 45-23 over #15 UTSA
UNT's worst loss: 24-17 @ Louisiana Tech
Admittedly I don't know a whole lot about North Texas this year. They had to win 5 straight to achieve bowl eligibility, beating 5 bad teams and 1 really good team (UTSA) in upset fashion to get to 6-6. Whatever the changes, they seemed to work defensively, allowing only 17 PPG their final five games compared to 35 PPG in their first seven.
This might be the best game no one watches; UNT and Miami are so evenly matched that it could come down to the final play (UNT is #80 in defensive efficiency, Miami is #81; in offensive efficiency, UNT is #99 and Miami is #82), or one team could find a big flaw and exploit it into a blowout. UNT is like Missouri in that they live and die with running the ball on the backs of Deandre Torrey and Ikaika Ragsdale, who have combined for 18 touchdowns and over 1700 yards this year (Torrey has more rushing TDs than the whole team has receiving TDs). Miami is the polar opposite; with 4 receivers with 4 TDs or more (and only 14 rushing TDs all year), this is one of the great clashes of style that I spoke of earlier.
Movie Comparison: This is like watching one of the later Fast & Furious movies. Turn your brain off and enjoy it. I'll take UNT to cover but Miami to win and the over but not by much.

Hawaii Bowl, Hawaii vs Memphis, 12/24, 8 PM

Line: Memphis -4, O/U 61.5
Hawaii's best win: @Wyoming, 38-14
Hawaii's worst loss: @UNLV, 27-13
I *live* for Hawaii bowls. Every year after the late Christmas Eve service at church, I turn off all the lights except for the Christmas tree, pour myself a nice glass of beer or whiskey that I've been saving, and slowly drift away watching this game. It starts earlier this year (boo) so that means I'll get to bed before Santa arrives (yay), but these games are always just weird.
Speaking of weird: Hawaii! At 6-7, the CFB gods had to create a new bowl game (the Frisco Classic above, actually) so they could get their rightful bowl game in Honolulu, but of their 6 wins, 2 are New Mexico State, 1 is FCS Portland State, and the other 2 are head coach-less Colorado State, and Wyoming. Hawaii isn't as fun as the run-and-shoot days of Nick Rolovich, but they still spread the ball around and can score in bunches in the right environment.
Memphis might be that right environment. They are 91st in defensive efficiency and definitely let their opponents score with some ease. This will just be a matter of which Hawaii shows up to play, but since it's a home game for them, I think they'll perform well and will cover. Always take the over when Memphis plays.
Movie comparison: Die Hard. It's Christmas Eve and it will be fun. I don't need to expound any further on that.

Camelia Bowl, Georgia State vs. Ball State, 12/25, 2:30 PM

Line: Georgia State - 4.5, O/U 50
GSU's best win: 42-40 @ #22 Coastal Carolina
GSU's worst loss: 45-16 vs App State
Georgia State found its footing after 2 ugly losses and a near upset against Auburn to start the year, going 6-1 down the stretch with their only loss to Sun Belt champion Louisiana by 4 points on the road (they even led by 3 with 3 minutes to go). Good offenses will manage to put up some points (UNC hung 59, App State 45, Coastal Carolina 40), but Ball State is not a good offense. To make matters worse for the Cardinals, Georgia State has a very good defense (54th in defensive efficiency and 35th in forced turnover rate).
Ball State is 10th in the country in offensive turnover rate, but they also don't really do that much on offense anyway. Given GSU's recent streak of play, I think they'll win comfortably in a low-scoring affair. GSU to cover and the under (I feel gross saying the Under on any college game).
Movie Comparison: A California Christmas. Has anyone watched this on Netflix? It's like every other check-the-box Christmas movie; predictable, not all that fun to watch, not necessarily visually appealing, and that it takes place on/around Christmas doesn't matter to the story, but hey, 'tis the season, right?

QuickLane Bowl, Western Michigan vs Nevada, 12/27, 11 AM

Line: Nevada -6.5, 65.5
WMU's best win: 44-41 @ ACC Champion Pitt
WMU's worst loss: 45-20 vs Ball State
I bought tickets for this game because it is a stone's throw from my parents' house where I will be staying for Christmas, and this game is going to be a track meet. Nevada and WMU are two of the most efficient passing offenses in the country; WMU is 30th in the country in offensive points per drive and 7th in the country in first down rate, so they move the ball efficiently and it's rare if they come off the field with nothing to show for it.
Nevada QB Carson Strong completes 70% of his passes and has already eclipsed 4,000 yards this season, over a quarter of them to Romeo Dubbs who has 80 catches (!) for 1109 yards and 11 scores. Western Michigan allowed 31 PPG in conference games while playing in a conference not known for scoring, so this one will be a very pointsy affair. I can't wait to witness this in person (my first game in person in almost 3 years).
Given Nevada's passing proficiency, I just don't think WMU will be able to keep up, unfortunately. I'll take Nevada to cover and definitely the over. This could be something outrageous like 63-49 and honestly, sign me right up.
Movie Comparison: The Departed - this will start with a bang and just keep going relentlessly to the final whistle. Don't waste your time with exposition, just buckle in (and look for me in my cat Christmas sweater on TV!).

Birmingham Bowl, Houston vs Auburn, 12/28, 12 PM

Line: Auburn -3, O/U 52
Houston's best win: 44-37 vs SMU
Houston's worst loss: 38-21 vs Texas Tech (it was either this or the conference championship against #3 Cincinnati)
As pointsy as the QuickLane Bowl will be, this one will be the opposite end of the spectrum. Auburn, methodical in their offensive approach and on a 4-game losing streak, plays in the toughest division in football and has lost to the 10th, 2nd, 13th, and 3rd ranked teams in the country. They've also defeated the 10th and 17th ranked team, so Houston is just "another opponent", but with Bo Nix and Tank Bigsby announcing their intent to transfer, Auburn simply might not care.
Houston relies on the big play to score points (26th in points per drive but 85th in bust rate (drives that gain 0 yards or worse)), so if they get off schedule then they might be playing from behind early.
This game will be interesting. Both teams ended their respective seasons on sour notes (Houston losing to Cincinnati in the conference championship and Auburn choking away the Iron Bowl and then losing their starting QB and RB) so this will be a matter of which coach will be able to rally the troops. If Auburn wasn't limping into this game (in every sense of the word), I'd take them but Houston is more complete on the field and off, so I'll take them to cover but also the under.
Movie Comparison: District 9 or The Pianist. Just depressing and borderline sadistic if you watch this more than once, despite of the incredible production value and quality of actors involved. One of the least rewatchable.

Peach Bowl, Michigan State vs Pitt, 12/30, 7 PM

Line: Even, O/U 60.5
MSU's best win: vs. Michigan, 37-33
MSU's worst loss: @Purdue, 40-29
A pick 'em game! Love those. If you're reading this, I'm guessing you're a big MSU fan and have purchased something from us before, so I don't need to go into too much detail about the type of football team MSU is.
That said - MSU's biggest weakness is pass defense and Pitt is 16th in the country in offensive yards per play. Kenny Pickett broke every passing record in the book this year and has a bevy of weapons big and small to use in the air attack.
On the other side of the ball, Kenneth Walker is the obvious weapon of choice but Pitt is 4th in the country in defensive bust rate (of course they are, they're a Narduzzi-coached team), so it won't be as simple as handing it off and moving the chains.
This might be one of the best games of the bowl season, but it might not go MSU's way. If Sean Clifford can pass for 300+ yards and 3 touchdowns in a snowstorm, Kenny Pickett might be able to pad the stat sheet more than he already has. My gut says Pitt and the over.
Movie Comparison: Goodfellas. Try to make the good times last as long as you can, but there's a foreboding feeling of doom throughout.

Arizona Bowl, Central Michigan vs Boise State, 12/31, 2 PM

Line: Boise -8, O/U 55.5
CMU's best win: 54-30 over Kent State
CMU's worst loss: 28-17 @ Miami of Ohio
Statistically, CMU RB Lew Nichols is the best running back in the country, rushing for almost a full mile with 1,708 yards on the season. Advanced metrics favor Boise State heavily but they struggle against teams with good rushing attacks (SDSU wore them down with their three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust style and Air Force put up 307 yards on 63 attempts), and that is how CMU beats their opponents. Run the ball and then pull out a play-action when the time is right.
The way to beat Boise State is force turnovers. In wins this year, Boise State QB Hank Bachmeier threw for 1706 yards with 10 TDs and 2 INTs; in losses he threw for 1374 yards with 10 TDs and 6 INTs. Unfortunately for CMU, they rank 87th in the country in defensive turnover rate, so they'll have their work cut out for them. This one could get pointsy and that's very exciting.
Either way, a rushing game travels (35th in first down rate in the country) and I fully expect CMU to compete to the very end. I think CMU covers but loses and definitely hits the over.
Movie Comparison: Logan Lucky. The best movie that no one has seen - actors out of their element, a gripping, but light-hearted and fun story, and criminally underrated.

Sugar Bowl, Baylor vs. Ole Miss, 1/1, 9 PM

Line: Baylor -1.5, O/U 54
Baylor's best win: vs. Oklahoma State, 21-16 (Big 12 Championship)
Baylor's worst loss: @TCU, 30-28
Talk about clashing styles. Ole Miss plays basketball on grass, constantly finding the perfect space and breaking out big play after big play. Baylor plays stingy defense, occasionally getting burned but also great at forcing turnovers. I'm surprised the total is this low, but Baylor's defense does manage to prevent lots of scoring - they managed to force Oklahoma to throw 2 interceptions and they could never got on track after that.
Like Auburn, Ole Miss plays an absolute gauntlet of a schedule and beat the #13 and #11 teams (and only lost to Alabama and full strength Auburn). Baylor, despite being the Big 12 champ, is far from the best team that they've played and this will be Matt Corral's chance to prove himself as a first round draft pick against a good defense (15th in defensive efficiency and 7th in turnover rate).
The Big 12 is not what it used to be - games are no longer won 56-49 (except when Texas lost to Kansas, lol) and the championship game showed a changing tide of defense-first mindsets. So even though they won their conference, Baylor has not seen an offense like this, other than maybe Oklahoma, whom they managed to stifle pretty easily. Unfortunately I think Ole Miss's offense will be too much to handle so give me the Rebs and the over.
Movie Comparison: The Other Guys. Fun and irreverent with a great contrasting character arc of a goof and a straight man. The rewatchability of this will be incredible.

Texas Bowl, Kansas State vs. LSU, 1/4, 9 PM

Line: LSU -1, O/U 47
Kansas State's best win: Nevada, 38-17
K-State's worst loss: @Texas, 22-17
If there's a bowl game not worth watching, it might be this one. K-State managed to take advantage of an easy schedule, beating every bad team they played and doing so in a very blue-collar fashion. 5' 6" RB Deuce Vaughn is by far the best player, but LSU also manages to stop the run with aplomb, and that leaves K-State woefully ill-prepared to do anything else on any offense (Skylar Thompson's 1800 yards and 9 touchdowns don't inspire confidence if the run game is stopped), and then you're throwing the ball towards Derek Stingley, who is a likely top 5 pick in next April's draft.
In wins, K-State averaged 5.1 yards per rush. In losses, that average dropped to 4.3 - still not bad, but LSU allows 3.8 yards per rush and held Alabama to 6 yards on 26 attempts, CMU to 1.8 YPC, and A&M to 1.9 YPC. K-State doesn't have the horses to beat LSU's defensive front and they definitely don't have an alternative if the run game is working. It might get ugly. I'll take LSU and the under.
Movie Comparison: any of the later editions of Pirates of the Caribbean. Just what are we doing here fam?

That's a lot of bowl games - and there are even more that I didn't cover. Wherever you watch them and no matter how many you watch, we wish you safe travels and a happy holiday season. Thank you for reading this and for making 2021 a great year for us!

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